Market Performance (31/03/2019-04/04/2019)
After the spell of strong bearish
move till 1100 level the INDEX saw some relief from the past week and made a
positive close this week too. The Index had a range of 30 pts this week. But
the Index closed with a gain of21.61 pts this week increased by 1.89% from its
open. The average Monthly volume of the Index is 291 million whereas the average
weekly volume of the index is 391 million. We can see the accumulation of
volumes in past two weeks. This indicates the positive sentiment of the market.
The current increase in the volume leads the positive biasness and is expected
to continue this week.
Weekly Statistics
Total Turnover (Rs.)
|
2,089,610,580.00
|
Total Traded Shares
|
7,908,140.00
|
Total No. of Transactions
|
33,759.00
|
Scrips Traded
|
172
|
Market Cap at (2019-03-31)
|
1,397,633.95 Millions
|
Market Cap at (2019-04-04)
|
1,424,089.62 Millions
|
Floated Market Cap at (2019-03-31)
|
490,235.68 Millions
|
Floated Market Cap at (2019-04-04)
|
501,289.29 Millions
|
Top 10 Securities by Amount Traded
S.N.
|
Name of the Security
|
Symbol
|
Amount Traded
|
1
|
NIC Asia Bank Ltd.
|
NICA
|
160,443,403.00
|
2
|
Nepal Credit And Commercial Bank Limited
|
NCCB
|
115,897,330.00
|
3
|
Prabhu Bank Limited
|
PRVU
|
84,893,893.00
|
4
|
NMB Bank Limited
|
NMB
|
82,896,374.00
|
5
|
Nepal Bank Limited
|
NBL
|
77,081,472.00
|
6
|
Civil Bank Ltd
|
CBL
|
60,695,032.00
|
7
|
Nepal Bangladesh Bank Limited
|
NBB
|
58,157,547.00
|
8
|
Everest Bank Limited
|
EBL
|
57,136,644.00
|
9
|
Machhapuchhre Bank Limited
|
MBL
|
56,428,189.00
|
10
|
Prime Commercial Bank Ltd.
|
PCBL
|
55,432,707.00
|
Listing from (31/03/2019-04/04/2019)
S.N.
|
Name of Company
|
Unit Listed
|
Type of Listing
|
1
|
Siddhartha Bank Limited
|
42,32,192.64
|
Bonus
|
2
|
LumbiniBikas Bank Ltd.
|
3,62,436.44
|
Right
|
3
|
Shangrila Development Bank Ltd.
|
10,02,554
|
Bonus
|
4
|
Sindhu Bikash Bank Ltd
|
2,80,808.16
|
Bonus
|
5
|
IME General Insurance Ltd.
|
43,20,000
|
Right
|
6
|
Samata Microfinance BittiyaSanstha Ltd.
|
37,920.00
|
Bonus
|
Technical Analysis
1. Weekly Support & Resistance
INDEX
|
S4
|
S3
|
S2
|
S1
|
Pivot
|
R1
|
R2
|
R3
|
R4
|
Classic
|
1,068.87
|
1,099.21
|
1,129.55
|
1,147.37
|
1,159.89
|
1,177.71
|
1,190.23
|
1,220.57
|
1,250.91
|
2.
Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
50-day EMA:1148 200-day EMA:1200
The
market is currently trading above its 50-day EMA. This indicates that the
market is out of its short term bearish pressure. The market need to settle
above 1200 area to relief itself from the pressure of its major bearish Trend.
3.Average Directional Index (ADX)
As ADX is used to measure the trend strength, the
value of ADX being 25.56 at present indicates the strength of current trend to
be strong. But a recent pull back in the market has not made any impact in the
ADX movement. Able to maintain a level above 25 the current trend is likely to
continue.
+DI and –DI now seems to start the diverging phase
indicating the continuation of the current trend. +DI being able to sustain the
current level and –DI still going down we will see some major upward moves in
the market.
Momentum Analysis
RSI (14):63
MACD (12,26,9) line: 7.12
Signal (12,26,9) Line: 4.05
MACD (12,26,9) histogram: 2.13
We can see that both of the
momentum indicator seems to be in positive tone here.The indication shows the
positive moment has been maintained in the market. We might see a small
pullback and a major upward move till the level of 70+ in RSI where as being a
lagging indicator the MACD will remain positive.
Fundamental Analysis
The economy is estimated to grow
above 6% in this FY. The economic activities seem to accelerate backed by
strong domestic demand and Increase Capital Expenditure. The agriculture sector
will likely grow from 2.8% in FY2018 to 4.5% in FY2019, owing to a good monsoon
that is expected to boost paddy production to 5.5 million tons, a rise of 8.4%
from the previous year. The industry sector is expected to expand by 7.1% in
FY2019 buoyed by improved electricity supply and efforts to improve the
investment climate. And the services sector will likely grow by 6.4% in FY2019
with the expansion of wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants, and
financial intermediation.
Revenue collection has primarily
increased on higher import growth and an improvement of the tax system. The
budget as of mid-January 2019 is in surplus by NRs173.3 billion owing to strong
revenue growth and a marginal slowdown in recurrent expenses. Though capital
expenditure has surged in the fiscal year through mid-February, its execution
stands at only 22.5%. This could again lead to a spending spree in the last
month of the fiscal year, undermining the quality of capital projects, says the
update.
With rising trade and current
account deficit, Nepal increasingly faces the risk of external sector
instability. Data to mid-February 2019 show that trade deficit has surpassed
net invisible earnings, widening the current account deficit to $1.5 billion,
marginally up from a deficit of $1.4 billion in the year earlier period. The
current account deficit is projected to widen further to 9.3% of gross domestic
product in FY2019, up from 8.2% a year earlier on increased imports of capital
and consumer goods and services, notwithstanding a healthy growth of
remittances and stable oil prices, says the update.
With a positive end on the
conclusion of the Investment summit recently we look forward to some promising
FDI in the economy in 2019.
Investment Themes
·
Equitiesare gaining positive momentums in a
meanwhile and seems to be at accumulation phase.
·
Long-term growth prospects and cheap absolute
and relative valuations support Equities.
·
Core Fixed income protects tend to head for anupturn
as we can see relaxation of interest rates in the market.
·
Government Consideration of bring FDI in Capital
market give a positive tone this week.
·
Stocks’ with high dividend yield are to be
considered for buying and maintaining a high Beta portfolio seems be rationale
at the moment.
Disclaimer:
The
report concerns the trading statistics and outlook based on the market
performance from 31st March 2019 to 4th April2019. The
information in the document has been printed on the basis of publicly available
information.Internal data and other sources believed to be true and are for
general guidance only but which may have not been verified independently. While
every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of information
contained.