Laxmi Capital News
NEPSE at 1200 mark; some even comparing it to previous all-time low; Is it right time to pour in your bucks into the red blazing market Find out from expert.

It is no hidden secret that the only stock market of ourcountry has been facing a tumultuous fall for quite a long time now. The marketcapitalization which had once crossed Rs 2100 arba mark has shrunk by more thanRs 600 arba in a mere couple years. Every penny lost is the grave decline tothe investors’ property and undoubtedly a major blow to the confidence to theirsentiment.

It now feels like “Once upon a time story” when people goto reminiscences of those days when index at NEPSE had peaked up to 1880 mark acouple of years back. Since then, the southward pull has been so powerful thatthere is no looking up and the index at current is threatening to languishbelow 1200 mark making holes in lot of pockets and coffers.

At this juncture, there are people with two differentsets of minds. There’s an anxious group of people who strongly believe that thegame is soon going to be over for them as the index has high probability ofslipping further into the danger zone from where there’s no retreat for theirinvestments. On the other hand, there is a gang of eager baggers who believethat the market has come down significantly providing them the most fertiletime to throw their seeds of hard-earned bucks to the stocks and expect ripefruits overnight.

Against all these backdrops, wehave tried to reach out to few experts and market observers who have more thana decade of good and bad times in Nepalese share market with a request to makethe current picture of our share market clear to above described types ofpeople. Each single one of them has wanted to stay anonymous taking intoconsideration their views can influence the sentiment of our market and hereare the extracts of their observations.

A senior investor/analyst believes that these daysdifferent media which call themselves eyes and ears of share market has failedmiserably to act as real eyes and ears. Some irrational media coverage havebeen doing more harm to our share market rather than good. Further, the marketcurrently has an overall week sentiment, as per the analyst and it should notbe further surprising that the market continues to lose further points incoming 6 months or so. In fact, few of the sectors such as microfinance andinsurance are still overrated and require further correction if their indexesneed to reflect their real performance. There are some chances that the marketmay show some small-scale rebounds however long-term recovery appears highlyunlikely until all the wires of market are plugged at their proper places.Therefore, it was inferred that the time is yet not ripen to pour in the entirebucks a layman investor has with him/her but planned and strategized investmentwould always pay off.

Another investor/analyst who doesn’t like to look overthe technical aspect at all believes that until and unless the basicfundamental aspects of the market come in the right track, the market cannotbounce back at any cost. There are many factors and parties responsible forthat and each one of them should realize that lost in share market is not theirpersonal lost alone but the grand loss of entire nation. Currently, thetendency of market has become highly unpredictable and it is advised that theinvestors calculate their risk taking and baring capacity before throwing intheir cash to the burning market as the wrong decision may led their cash toevaporate in that fire like Rs 600 arba or so.

Another analyst who puts more weight over technicalitiesof share market believes that the market should first recover from its currentoverall bearish mood with all the present indicators showing further decline.It won’t be a matured decision to jump into the share market at a currentscenario believing that the shares have shredded considerable value in the pastfew months leaving no room for further decline. The analyst suggests asingle-word mantra to fight back the current bearish mood of the market and itis “patience”. “In share markets of every kind, it is definitely a sweet dreamof everybody to make handsome profit. However, making money should take aback-seat as per me it’s more important for the investors to survive in sharemarket rather than just making money. If you survive the brunt of cruelty ofshare markets and have some cash in your hand to invest, the market will beright there and you will have next chance to enter the market and probably booksome profit.” The willing investors therefore should wait and watch as per theexpert and trace closely the movement of the market and its differentindicators.

Another observer who has significant knack over thetechnical movements of the market echoed the earlier opinions expressing thatthe overall market has depressed mood and further decline has to be viewed asnecessary correction. Something positive about the final analyst was theapproach with which the current free-fall was dealt. “The market made all-timehigh of 1881 and people are failing to read both sides of that event in thatcase. The market had picked up from 292 or so and logged gain of more than 1500points. People are prioritizing only the 1881 mark but have forgottenrock-bottom of 292. Now, having lost some 600 points, they are anxious that themarket has started coming to its knees once again. What can be expected thatfurther natural decline of market seems highly likely and has to be treatednaturally. Nevertheless, as day follows the night, a turning point seems fastapproaching from where our market shall definitely retrieve northward.”

Now, having scrolled and read through all these anonymousexpert opinions, what do you think dear readers? Do you also think that thestocks have become quite cheaper and feel an urge of investing? At the hindside, do you believe the market is destined to crumble to its knees where itneeds to pick up from scratch thereby offering investors like you and me to buystocks in par value or perhaps even below?

Source :Sharesansar, 26th March 2018


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